Cognitive Biases

Cognitive Biases are rules of thumb that we use to make quick decisions. In many ways, they can help us e.g. we know to hand over the wallet to a mugger, as 99% of the time, this is the quickest way to get them to leave us. Like all rules of thumb, or heuristics, they are there to guide and direct us, rather than to offer absolute solutions – situations determine solutions, rather than rules and preconceived notions of what we should and shouldn’t do; 1% of mugging incidents, will require a different resolution than handing over the wallet, so we also need to have a plan/tactic, for when the mugger doesn’t leave. Unfortunately, there are times when these cognitive biases lead us astray and misdirect us, and we should be aware of this, so that we don’t build or work with incorrect “models of violence”. A model of violence, is an understanding/replica of how we believe a certain type of violence will play out e.g. if we believe that the most likely rape/sexual assault scenario that we will face involves a stranger and a remote location, then we have built and constructed an incorrect/unlikely model of violence concerning this type of assault, as these types of assaults are more likely to occur in our home or somebody else’s, and involve somebody we know, etc.

One type of cognitive bias we use is “anchoring”. An anchor, is an experience, rule, or piece of knowledge that we adopted early on, find ourselves referring to on a regular basis, and continue to compare new information against. One of the first pieces of safety advice that we were probably given as children, was not to get into cars with strangers, etc. Our parents/guardians, would have painted a picture, and/or described a situation, in which we would be playing in our front yard, and a stranger in a car (or possibly the infamous white van), would pull up, and ask us if we wanted to go and see some puppies, etc. As children, this may have been a likely approach for a predatory individual who doesn’t know us to use to get us into their car, but as adults it is a highly unlikely one. A predatory stranger is much more likely to use other methods, to get us into their car e.g. they may crash into our car, in a remote location and offer to give us a ride to the nearest town, etc. Unfortunately, our anchor, may cause us to not recognize what is happening, because the situation we are in doesn’t reflect the model it was built around. Whilst the anchor of not getting into a car with strangers, was constructed around an adult predator targeting a child, it doesn’t reflect the methods that such predators would use when targeting adult victims.

Anchoring biases are often supported by confirmation biases e.g. we may have been educated early on, that one of the biggest threats to our safety comes from the mentally ill. Using this as our anchor, we may focus on information that confirms this viewpoint, and ignore the larger body of information and evidence that disproves this, or sets it in the appropriate context. For someone who believes that the mentally ill are dangerous, the fact that the killer involved in the recent Texas active shooter incident had been diagnosed with a mental illness, will confirm their viewpoint, and may lead them to conclude that this is the primary motivation and reason behind all active shooter/killer incidents, even though when looking at past incidents, anger and isolation issues, appear to be more common driving forces. We all have confirmation biases. It’s one of the reasons why we watch certain news channels, and read certain news sources – we want our views and ideas to be confirmed. The danger is that when we apply this to personal safety, we may find ourselves building incorrect models of violence, that put us in danger when we try to apply them.   

Often, when trying to understand something, we will settle on the first alternative/option that makes sense to us, and not investigate any further. If we are told that the best way to de-escalate a confrontation is to talk calmly and apologize for whatever indiscretion we’ve committed, or if dealing with a mugger, to throw our wallet away from us and them so they leave us and go to the wallet, etc., we are likely to accept these rules, and not consider that these solutions may in fact increase the danger we are in. Our natural desire to settle on the first solution we are presented with often leads to tunnel vision and incremental thinking, where we are only able to move in one direction, rather than operate laterally, recognizing that different solutions may be more effective, and not lead us into danger. Although settling on the first solution someone tells us, may quickly give us a tactic and strategy to adopt, it doesn’t mean we’ll be equipped with the right one.

Another cognitive bias that we use, is that when facing a certain situation, it is likely that we will try to compare it to another similar one we’ve seen, in order to replicate and copy the solution that we used to deal with it. Certain training methods can reinforce this. If, when you practice gun and knife disarms, you simply practice the technique, without putting a context around it, it is likely that your solution to every situation you are involved in where a gun is involved will be to perform a disarm, etc., even when a mugger demands your wallet, and the incident can likely be ended without violence, by handing it over. This simple heuristic of acquiescing to a predator’s demand, can also get us into trouble, if they are demanding that we move from our primary location to another; as this is something we shouldn’t agree to, and would be an appropriate time to perform a disarm, etc. Understanding that not every situation where a person threatens us with a weapon is the same, will help us avoid replicating inappropriate tactics.

Studies have shown that vivid information, and personal accounts, affect our thinking and understanding to a greater extent than statistics and studies. An individual’s personal recollection of an experience will color our thinking far more than the results of a study, that contains the experiences of many individuals, but is presented as a set of numbers, or displayed in a chart, rather than as an anecdote/story, etc. This also means that we are more likely to be influenced by a dramatic movie scene, that is fictional, than by less graphic depictions of violence that are reality-based. It is far easier for us to imagine and fixate on a sexual assault committed by a stranger, late at night in a deserted location, than by a work colleague in our home or theirs – even though statistically this is much more likely.

Whilst cognitive biases are rules of thumb, that can help us quickly reach decisions, we need to know their potential adverse effects as well, so that we don’t build incorrect models of violence that can misdirect our understanding of how to effectively act and behave in dangerous situations.