Crime Decline

Several weeks back I wrote an article on why crime, including violent crime, rose significantly in the post-war era. In this article I want to look at some of the reasons why crime has declined dramatically and consistently since the early 1990’s; something that many people are unaware of due to the way that the media reports and presents on criminal acts etc. I also want to look at the connection between certain crimes such as burglary and car thefts and how a decline in these activities can create a decline in other offenses, such as street robberies etc., rather than creating a displacement effect e.g., if offenders can’t steal cars, they will start engaging in other criminal acts in order to generate cash etc. Before getting into all of that I want to briefly explain again why crime rates rose so dramatically from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. Despite increases in the standard of living in this period – crime was originally thought to be the result of poverty – crime rates increased dramatically. This was down to several factors, including changes in people’s daily routines e.g., people started spending more leisure time in public spaces, creating opportunities for assaults and muggings etc., and because of this houses were left vacant/empty for longer periods of time, creating more opportunities for burglary etc. At the same time car ownership increased, resulting in more chances for automobile theft, and many valuable items, such as radios and television sets became smaller and more transferable making them easier targets to steal etc. Basically, there were more opportunities for offenses to be committed. Before looking at why crime rates have been consistently falling since the early 1990’s it is worth remembering that the reasons behind the decline do not have to be a reversal of the reasons behind the increase; other “new” factors may explain the reversal e.g., an increase in home security could explain a decrease in burglaries, rather than a change in people’s routine activities – people may be spending the same amount of time away from their homes as they did in the 1970’s, but due to better security systems their houses are harder to break into etc.

I bought my first car in the early 1990’s, when car crime was still extremely high in the UK; cars were stolen for joy-riding, for sale etc., and were broken into for their radios and stereos etc. My first car was an Austin Metro built in 1982. At the time it was made, car security wasn’t a priority for automobile manufacturers – their emphasis was on performance and other features that gave them a competitive advantage. The only feature my car had to deter criminals was an “internal” steering lock that could easily be broken. I found this out after my car was stolen for the first time (it was subsequently stolen two more times, with it being stolen and set alight by joyriders on the last occasion), and the “lock” – a small piece of plastic – had been snapped. Car manufacturers really only started thinking about security in the mid to late 1980’s, as a response to rising automobile thefts. Lock designs started to change, so that it was no longer possible to simply put a coat hanger through the rubber holding the window in place and loop it round the lock – something I used to do when I accidentally locked my keys in the car. Central locking started to become a standard feature. Car keys started to get “smart” technology, with chips that electronically validated that it wasn’t a foreign key that was being used to open and start the car. Initially these measures had little effect on overall crime rates, as traditionally car thefts tended to target older models; one of the reasons for this was that stolen cars were sometimes broken down for parts, and it was older models that needed these for repairs i.e., there wasn’t really a market for new car parts etc. Also, there is a larger number of older cars on the road than there is new – more opportunities. However, by the early to mid-2000’s, most older cars that lacked security features were off the roads, and from 2002 to 2008, car thefts dropped at a significant rate. There are people who don’t believe that increases in security work, making the argument that if someone wants to steal a car, they will find a way to, etc. There is definitely truth in this, however most offenders are opportunists who looking for easy opportunities - denied them they move on - and not necessarily to other offenses.

Burglary is an offense, that many offenders of other crimes, including sexual assaults, have committed i.e., if you look at persistent offender’s charge sheets many of them have convictions for burglary. An interesting feature of the motivations to commit burglary show that “excitement” as a motivating feature is fairly similar to the desire to acquire goods/money; the thrill is as important as the financial reward etc. However, burglary rates have been falling in the US since the 1980’s, suggesting that it is no longer as popular a crime as it once was. One reason behind this might be that the value of various goods has been declining, that the venture is no longer as financially rewarding as it once was, and that there may be more rewarding ways for offenders to get their thrills, and/or that the risk of getting caught is no longer worth the financial reward. If you plot TV inflation, looking at what $1000 in the 1960’s would buy you versus what that would get you today it can be seen that the value of television sets has fallen dramatically i.e., that $1000 is worth less than $10 today. It is possible to get a new, 32-inch flat screen TV for less than $150. The stolen value of such an item would be significantly less. In 1960 stealing a $1000 television set would be much more financially rewarding than it would be today in monetary terms. There used to be a time when a residential burglar could make a good deal of money, and even do it as a profession, however today with the proliferation of cheap economic goods it no longer offers such a viable career.

But why/how would a reduction in burglary and car-crime cause a reduction in other offenses? Both offenses are often entry-level crimes, meaning that they are the ones, which most offenders start with regardless of the other crimes they later commit. If a young offender commits a burglary, they will soon find themselves interacting with other offenders such as those who will fence their stolen good etc., and in turn these individuals may introduce them to others within their criminal network. The same is true of car-crimes. If someone steals a car to go joyriding, they will likely find themselves doing so in locations where other joyriders hang out etc. If increased car security reduces the ability for such offense to be committed and burglaries no longer offer a good risk-reward ratio, then those who might have become persistent offenders through being introduced to others etc., no longer have/take the opportunities to do so. Obviously, there are other factors at play to explain the drop in crime rates since the early 1990’s, but these are some of the reasons that don’t relate to public policies which often claim responsibility for the decline.